The General Stock Market in 1959:
The Dow-Jones Industrial Average, undoubtedly the most widely used index of stock market behavior, presented a somewhat faulty picture in 1959. This index recorded an advance from 583 to 679, or 16.47 for the year. When the dividends which would have been received through ownership of the average are added, an overall gain of 19.97% is indicated for 1959.
道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)，這個被最廣泛用于代表市場表現(xiàn)的指數(shù)，在1959年沒有很好的表現(xiàn)市場狀況。該指數(shù)該年從583上漲到679，有16.47%的漲幅。當把當年的股利影響加權(quán)之后，1959年的總體漲幅應(yīng)該在19.97%。
Despite this indication of a robust market, more stocks declined than advanced on the New York Stock Exchange during the year by a margin of 710 to 628. Both the Dow-Jones Railroad Average and Utility Average registered declines.
盡管指數(shù)顯得市場強勁，紐約證交所里的股票跌得卻比漲得多，比數(shù)是710:680. 道瓊斯鐵路平均指數(shù)和道瓊斯公共事業(yè)平均指數(shù)雙雙下跌。
Most investment trusts had a difficult time in comparison with the Industrial Average. Tri-Continental Corp., the nation's largest closed-end investment company (total assets $400 million) has an overall gain of about 5.7% for the year. Fred Brown, its President, had this to say about the 1959 market in a recent speech to the Analysts Society:
眾多投資機構(gòu)今年業(yè)績都遜于工業(yè)平均指數(shù)。Tri-Continental 公司，全國最大的封閉式投資公司（總資產(chǎn)達4億美金）年投資回報率為5.7%。公司主席Fred Brown在最近一次分析師大會上如此評價1959年的市場：
“But, even though we like the portfolio, the market performance of Tri-Continental's holdings in 1959 was disappointing to us. Markets in which investor sentiment and enthusiasm play so large a part as those of 1959, are difficult for investment managers trained in values and tuned to investing for the long-term. ?Perhaps we haven't had our space boots adjusted properly. However, we believe that there is limit to risks that an investing institution such as Tri-Continental should take with its stockholders's money, and we believe that the portfolio is in shape for the year ahead.”
“盡管我們對投資組合很滿意，Tri-Continental在1959年的表現(xiàn)卻讓人失望。1959年的市場對于專注于長期投資和價值投資理念的投資經(jīng)理很難，因為投資者的情緒和熱情主導了市場。也許我們的太空鞋還沒調(diào)整好（沒準備一飛沖天？）。但是我們相信像Tri-Continental這樣的投資機構(gòu)不能用投資者的錢來承擔過多的風險，同時我們相信我們的投資組合是很適合明年的市場”
Massachusetts Investors Trust, the country's largest mutual fund with assets of $1.5 billion showed an overall gain of about 9% for the year.
Massachusetts投資信托，有15億美元的全國最大共同基金，當年有9%的收益。
Most of you know I have been very apprehensive about the general stock market levels for several years. To date, this caution has been unnecessary. By previous standards, the press level of "blue chip" security prices contains a substantial speculative component with a corresponding risk of loss. Perhaps other standards of valuation are evolving which will permanently replace the old standards. I don't think so. I may very well be wrong; however, I would rather sustain the penalties resulting from over-conservatism than face the consequences of error, perhaps with permanent capital loss, resulting from the adoption of a "New Era" philosophy where tree really do grow to the sky.
眾所周知我已經(jīng)對股票市場擔憂好幾年了。不過到現(xiàn)在為止，好像這種謹慎好像都是多余的。按照先前的標準，媒體所標榜的“藍籌”股價格已經(jīng)包含大量的投機因素從而導致價格大幅下跌的風險。也許其他的估值方法正在逐漸形成并會最終取代過去的標準。但我并不這么想。我也許是錯的，但是我寧愿因為過于謹慎而交罰款，而不希望由于錯誤地接受“新時代”的哲學去相信樹真的能漲到天上去，而導致永久性的資金損失。
Results in 1959:
1959年投資結(jié)果：
There has been emphasis in previous letters on a suggested standard of performance involving relatively good results (compared to the general market indices and leading investment trusts) in periods of declining or level prices but relatively unimpressive results in rapidly rising markets.
在之前的股東信中已經(jīng)提到過我們的投資表現(xiàn)相比于一般市場指數(shù)和頭部的投資信托機構(gòu)，在市場下跌和盤整的期間要更好，但是在快速上漲的市場中就沒有那么亮眼了。
We are fortunate to achieve reasonably good results in 1959. The six partnerships that operated throughout the year achieved overall net gains ranging from 22.3% to 30.0%, and averaging about 25.9%. Portfolios of these partnerships are now about 80% comparable, but there is some difference due to securities and cash becoming available at varying times, payment made to partners etc. Over the past few years, there hasn't been any partnership which has consistently been at the top or bottom of performance from year to year, and variance is narrowing as the portfolios trend to become comparable.
我們在1959年有幸獲得了不錯的回報，六個合伙公司通過一年的運作總體凈收益從22.3% 到 30% 不等，平均達25.9%。這些合伙公司的投資組合現(xiàn)在有80%的相似，其中差別的原因主要是由于現(xiàn)金或者股票交易時間以及付給合伙人的資金的不同等等。在過去幾年中，沒有任何一個合伙公司的表現(xiàn)持續(xù)最好或者一直最糟糕，之間的差別越來越小，這主要是因為組合趨同。
The overall net gain is determined on the basis ?of market values at the beginning and end of the year adjusted for payments made to partners or contributions received from them. It is not based on actual realized profits during the year, but is intended to measure the change in liquidating value for the year. It is before interest allowed to partners (where that is specified in the partnership agreement) and before any division of profit to the general partner, but after operating expenses.
總體凈利潤是根據(jù)年初和年末的市場價值并根據(jù)給合伙人的回報以及他們的投入進行調(diào)整的。并不是基于一年中實際獲利而是通過這一年公司清算價值的改變來計算的?？傮w凈利潤計入了付給合作伙伴的利息（按照合伙協(xié)議）以及給一般合伙人的分成，但是扣除了運營費用。
The principal operating expenses is the Nebraska Intangibles Tax which amounts to .47% of market value on practically all securities. Last year represented the first time that this tax had been effectively enforced and, of course, penalized our results to the extent of .47%.
運營費用的計量準則基于Nebraska無形資產(chǎn)稅，對幾乎所有的股票都按照股票市值征收0.47%。去年是該項稅收第一年執(zhí)行，因此這也直接導致把我們投資收益拉低了0.47%。
The Present Portfolio:
當前的投資組合：
Last year I mentioned a new commitment which involved about 25% of the assets of the various partnerships. Presently, this investment is about 35% of assets. This is an unusually large percentage, but has been make for strong reasons. In effect, this Company is partially an investment trust owning some thirty or forty other securities of high quality. Our investment was made and is carried at substantial discount from asset value based on market value of their securities and conservative appraisal of the operating business.
去年我提到一筆占到我們總資產(chǎn)25%的新投資。目前該項投資占比約35%。這個是個不同尋常的高占比，但卻非常合理。實際上，這家公司有一部分從事投資信托的業(yè)務(wù)擁有差不多30-40家優(yōu)質(zhì)公司的股票。根據(jù)它們所持股票的市場價值以及保守估計它們主要業(yè)務(wù)的實際價值之后，我們在其市場價格大打折扣的時大舉投資。
We are the Company's largest stockholder by a considerable margin, and the two other large holders agree with our idea. The probability is extremely high that the performance of this investment will be superior to that of the general market until it's disposition, and I am hopeful that this will take place this year.
我們是該公司最大的股東，其他兩位大股東也贊成我們的想法。這筆投資的收益非常將可觀，同時該項投資的表現(xiàn)必將優(yōu)于市場直到公司合并，而且我希望這在今年就發(fā)生。
The remaining 65% of the portfolio is in securities which I consider undervalued and work-out operations. To the extent possible, I continue to attempt to invest in situations at least partially insulated from the behavior of the general market.
剩余的65%的投資組合放在了我認為低估的股票和套利操作。在可能的范圍內(nèi)，我繼續(xù)嘗試至少部分隔絕于市場行為的情形下投資。
This policy should lead to superior results in bear markets, and average performance in bull markets. The first prediction may be subject to test this year since, at this writing, the Dow-Jones Industrials have retraced over half of their 1959 advance.
這項投資策略會在熊市帶來優(yōu)于市場的收益并且在牛市中和市場持平。第一段預言（熊市？）也許說的就是今年，在寫這封信的時候，道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)已經(jīng)回吐了1959年漲幅的一半。
Should you have any questions or if I have not been clear in any respect, I would be very happy to hear from you.
如果有任何問題或者我有任何表述不清楚的地方，希望能夠指出，期待你們的回信。
Warren E. Buffett
2-20-60
后記： 巴菲特合伙公司今年市值 = ?（去年）$2400萬*(1+0.259)=$3021.6 萬
