1）第一次涉水此類文章希望大家多多關(guān)照? 點(diǎn)贊評論留言缺一不可切切

2）資淺業(yè)界小佬淺度分析行業(yè)動態(tài)。以鼓勵為主不得棒槌

3）此文唯一可圈可點(diǎn)的就是作者筆耕不輟孜孜不倦

是為前言

從1956的黑板會議到2021的牛鞭效應(yīng)

當(dāng)晶體管之父肖克利會在手上拿著一支粉筆，站在黑板前面寫下大家的想法。急性子的布拉頓會在房間后面來回踱步，然后大聲喊出自己對肖克利的觀點(diǎn)不認(rèn)同的地方，有時(shí)甚至?xí)靡幻涝蛸€這些想法是不可行的。肖克利可不喜歡打賭輸錢。“在看到他拿出10個一角硬幣還給我的時(shí)候，我就知道他肯定氣得不輕?！辈祭D回憶道。肖克利和約翰·巴丁、沃爾特·布萊頓三人共同發(fā)明了晶體管。他們并因此獲得1956年的諾貝爾物理獎。

Father of the transistor, William Shockley, together with John Bardeen and Walter Brattain, was jointly awarded the 1956 Nobel Prize in Physics for "their researches on semiconductors and their discovery of the transistor effect".? Known as "blackboard sessions" or "chalk talks", Shockley would stand, chalk in hand, scribbling down ideas, Brattain, even brash, would pace around the back of the room and shout out objections to some of Shockley's suggestions, sometimes betting a dollar they wouldn't work. Shockley didn't like losing. "I finally found out he was annoyed when he paid me off once in ten dimes," Brattain recalled.

70年之后肖克利肯定沒有預(yù)測到他他們發(fā)明的半導(dǎo)體被用來當(dāng)作貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)爭最有力的武器他們也沒有在日本茨城縣某工廠的一場大火把全球的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)又一次推向了困境。

Seventy years later Shockley certainly didn't predict that the semiconductors they invented would be used as the most powerful weapon in a trade war, nor did they when a fire at a factory in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, threw the global auto industry into predicament once again.

Fire in Renesas plant / 瑞薩工廠火災(zāi)

從2020年開始幾乎所有的電子廠商都在哀嘆芯片的短缺汽車廠商因?yàn)闆]有足夠的芯片而被迫停工甚至解雇工人客戶需要提前8到12周下單甚至更長芯片代工廠取消了給客戶所有的折扣卻依然訂單如雪片而且無法滿足產(chǎn)能到了2021年情況沒有改善而且是愈演愈烈。

From 2020 onwards almost all electronics manufacturers are bemoaning the shortage of chips, car manufacturers are forced to shut down or even lay off workers because there are not enough chips, customers need to order 8 to 12 weeks in advance or even longer, chip foundries canceled all discounts to customers but still orders like snowflakes and can not meet capacity. By 2021 the situation has not slightly improved but is getting even worse.

問蒼天問大海為什么？！?。?很多小廠商都欲哭無淚抱著吉他在芯片廠門口吟唱為什么受傷的總是me

給我一片芯再給我一支煙說走就走我有的是時(shí)間我不想在未來的日子里獨(dú)自哭著無法往前

筆者作為業(yè)界中人士進(jìn)行了分（ctrl·c）析（ctrl·v）供大家深刻的思考（茶前飯后談資）

The author, as an unknown authoritative engineer, in the industry, carried out the deep analysis (ctrl-c) (ctrl-v) for your consideration (after dinner talk)

牛鞭效應(yīng)? 這是指供應(yīng)鏈上的一種需求變異放大現(xiàn)象，就是訂單信息流從最終客戶端向上游供應(yīng)鏈傳遞時(shí)，因?yàn)闊o法有效地共享信息，使得信息扭曲而逐級放大，從而導(dǎo)致需求信息出現(xiàn)越來越大的波動。這種信息扭曲的放大作用在圖形上很像一個甩起的牛鞭，因此被形象地稱為“牛鞭效應(yīng)”。

The bullwhip effect - This is a kind of demand variation amplification phenomenon in the supply chain, that is, the order information flow from the final customer to the upstream supply chain, because of the inability to effectively share information, so that information distortion and amplification at each level, thus leading to increasing fluctuations in-demand information. This amplification of information distortion graphically resembles a thrown-up bullwhip, so it is imaginatively called the "bullwhip effect".

牛鞭效應(yīng)

當(dāng)疫情導(dǎo)致在家辦公大范圍普及時(shí)，PC及配件出貨量出現(xiàn)明顯上升，從而延續(xù)至今。被五大廠商壟斷全球PC市場，出現(xiàn)芯片“囤貨”和超額訂購。另一面汽車行業(yè)大都采用豐田始創(chuàng)的“JIT（Just-in-Time）”生產(chǎn)模式，不敢像手機(jī)行業(yè)那樣囤積很多庫存和占用寶貴的現(xiàn)金流。疫情漸漸回復(fù)汽車銷售開始回升時(shí)，汽車廠商卻發(fā)現(xiàn)無法繼續(xù)從半導(dǎo)體供應(yīng)商那里獲得充足的供應(yīng)。于是，又出現(xiàn)了汽車芯片荒。

When the epidemic led to the widespread popularity of working from home, there was a significant increase in PC and accessory shipments, which still continues now. The global PC market was monopolized by five major manufacturers, and there was "hoarding" and over-ordering of chips. On the other hand, the automotive industry mostly adopted the "JIT (Just-in-Time)" production model pioneered by Toyota, not daring to hoard a lot of inventory and take up valuable cash flow like the cell phone industry. When the epidemic gradually returned to car sales began to pick up, automakers found that they could not continue to get sufficient production capacity from semiconductor suppliers. Thus, there was another chip shortage in the automotive industry.

屋漏偏逢連夜雨

2月份德州奧斯汀大雪導(dǎo)致汽車芯片最大制造商之一的恩智浦半導(dǎo)體(NXP)和三星被迫關(guān)閉晶圓廠

3月份日本瑞薩一座以車用半導(dǎo)體為主的12吋晶圓廠起火，

2020年是臺灣56年來首次沒有臺風(fēng)通過，又出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重缺水的問題，作為給車用芯片救火隊(duì)員的臺積電花費(fèi)2億新臺幣從外地預(yù)定上百輛卡車運(yùn)水。

Misfortunes never come singly.

In February Heavy snowfall in Austin, Texas forced NXP Semiconductors (NXP), one of the largest manufacturers of automotive chips, to close their fabs, as well as Samsung electronics.

In March a 12-inch fab in Renesas, Japan, with main force automotive semiconductors, caught fire.

2020 was also the first time in 56 years that no typhoon passed through Taiwan, and there was a serious water shortage. TSMC, which acts as the firefighter for automotive chips, spent 200 million NTD to book hundreds of trucks to transport water from out-of-towns.

chip dries / 干涸的芯片

這無疑對芯片的供應(yīng)短缺是“雪上加霜”

This is undoubtedly "adding to the shortage" of supply of chips.

更甚的是某大國政府對他國的半導(dǎo)體和電子設(shè)備企業(yè)的限制，特別是對以一個大國之力對一個特定企業(yè)的“圍堵”，影響的不單單是幾家公司，而是全球供應(yīng)鏈的正常市場供需。限制先進(jìn)半導(dǎo)體制造設(shè)備出口，導(dǎo)致全球半導(dǎo)體供應(yīng)鏈的新增產(chǎn)能延遲或受阻。導(dǎo)致抓緊“囤貨”的不止一家公司，所有被列入實(shí)體清單的企業(yè)都是誠惶誠恐，開始尋找“國產(chǎn)替代”，晶圓制造的復(fù)雜性、交貨期延長和盲目“囤貨”導(dǎo)致了“短缺博弈”。在緊急情況下，人們會失去理性而瘋狂搶購某些被視為“救命稻草”的商品。“非典”的醋，“新冠“的板藍(lán)根，都短期成了“緊缺物資”。然而半導(dǎo)體芯片的生產(chǎn)卻沒那么容易調(diào)整生產(chǎn)。交期延長讓“牛鞭效應(yīng)”達(dá)到最大程度的扭曲。

What's more, restrictions by a major government on some semiconductor and electronic equipment companies in another country, especially the "blocking" of a specific company, affect not just a few companies, but the normal market supply and demand of the global supply chain. Restrictions on the export of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment have led to delays or disruptions in new capacity in the global semiconductor supply chain. All the companies included in the list of entities are in fear and have started to look for "domestic alternatives", the complexity of wafer manufacturing, longer delivery times, and blind "stockpiling". The complexity of chip manufacturing, extended lead times, and blind "hoarding" led to a "shortage game" furthermore. In an emergency, people will lose their rationality and rush to buy certain goods that are regarded as "life-saving". The "SARS" vinegar, the radix isatidis in coronavirus pandemic, have become a short-term "shortage of goods". However, the production of semiconductor chips is not so easy to adjust. Lead time is extended so that the "bullwhip effect" to the maximum degree of distortion into a serious social problem.

是天災(zāi)還是人禍呢？你懂的。

Is it an act of God or a man-made disaster? You tell me.

磚家給分析一哈這行業(yè)到底si咋整得咧

?大師發(fā)言不敢肆意篡改照搬全抄。其下是為行業(yè)動態(tài)其一

直至以前的霸主英特爾今年宣布跨足晶圓製造服務(wù)，這點(diǎn)我看來相當(dāng)?shù)闹S刺，因?yàn)橐婚_始英特爾看不起製造，認(rèn)為做不大。/// 美國至少工程師、任何人敬業(yè)程度不如臺灣。在美國製造業(yè)幾十年前就不紅了，他們做創(chuàng)投、行銷，金融業(yè)或其他，都比在製造業(yè)吃香，臺灣的優(yōu)勢是很多優(yōu)秀敬業(yè)的人願意投入製造業(yè)。/// 美國的胡蘿蔔跟棍子、短期美國聯(lián)邦與州政府的幾年補(bǔ)貼，仍不能彌補(bǔ)長期競爭劣勢。

大師論壇

I don't dare to tamper with the master's speech and copy it all.

Until the former juggernaut, Intel announced this year that it was moving into wafer manufacturing services, which seems rather ironic to me because at first Intel looked down on manufacturing and thought it wouldn't do much. /// The U.S. at least engineers and people are not as dedicated as Taiwan. In the U.S. manufacturing industry decades ago is not red, they do venture capital, marketing, financial industry, or other, are more popular than in the manufacturing industry, Taiwan's advantage is that many good and dedicated people are willing to invest in the manufacturing industry. /// U.S. carrots and sticks, short-term U.S. federal and state subsidies for a few years, still can not make up for the long-term competitive disadvantage.

如果一個晶圓廠從零開始，初始投資需要500億日元或更多，如果連續(xù)增加設(shè)施，投資可能達(dá)到1000億日元。而設(shè)備材料的晶圓硅片廠商SUMCO首席執(zhí)行官橋本估計(jì)，"除非（300毫米晶圓價(jià)格）上升50-60%，否則我們不會超過盈虧平衡點(diǎn)。? 然而這樣顯而易見的想法不能逃避他們作為企業(yè)供應(yīng)商的責(zé)任。如果在目前的半導(dǎo)體短缺問題得到解決后，晶圓沒有運(yùn)到，日本公司將受到世界工業(yè)界的譴責(zé)。出于這個原因，預(yù)計(jì)該公司將很快做出決定，這取決于漲價(jià)的進(jìn)展。--- 以前根據(jù)半導(dǎo)體周期來對投資做判斷的半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備商們現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)沒有這樣的猶豫不決閑情了是為行業(yè)動態(tài)其二

If a fab starts from scratch, an initial investment of 50 billion yen or more is required, and if facilities are added consecutively, the investment could reach 100 billion yen. Hashimoto, CEO of wafer material and equipment maker SUMCO, estimates that "unless (the price of 300mm wafers) rises by 50-60%, we will not exceed the break-even point. However, such an obvious idea cannot escape their responsibility as corporate suppliers. If the wafers do not arrive after the current semiconductor shortage is resolved, the Japanese company will be condemned by the world industry. For this reason, the company is expected to make a decision soon, depending on the progress of the price increase. -- Semiconductor equipment vendors who used to make judgments about their investments based on the semiconductor cycle now have no such leisure to hesitate.

為了繼續(xù)對蘇聯(lián)施加外交壓力，在1971年7月和10月，基辛格兩度秘密訪問中華人民共和國，與時(shí)任中華人民共和國國務(wù)院總理周恩來協(xié)商，並負(fù)責(zé)美國政府的對華政策。這為1972年尼克松訪華的中美高峰會議鋪路以及為中美關(guān)系正?；於嘶?，結(jié)束了中華人民共和國和美國兩國間23年的敵對與隔閡，從而完成了戰(zhàn)略性的外交政策轉(zhuǎn)變。然而基辛格打開的國際化的這扇大門 2019年開始又漸漸的被關(guān)上了據(jù)說是為了星條旗永不落。從而似乎對芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈也造成了些許影響。拜登的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)計(jì)劃處處顯示出，冷戰(zhàn)新時(shí)代的競爭更多是在技術(shù)而不是軍事上。還有數(shù)十億美元支持的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策（拜登的白宮避免使用這個詞），比如先進(jìn)半導(dǎo)體制造業(yè)回流美國，減少對中國供應(yīng)商的依賴。是為行業(yè)動態(tài)其三

In order to continue diplomatic pressure on the Soviet Union, Kissinger made two secret visits to the People's Republic of China in July and October 1971 to consult with then-Premier Zhou Enlai and take charge of the U.S. government's policy toward China. This paved the way for the U.S.-China summit in 1972 with Nixon's visit to China and laid the cornerstone for the normalization of U.S.-China relations, ending 23 years of hostility and separation between the People's Republic of China and the United States, thus completing a strategic foreign policy shift. However, this door of internationalization opened by Kissinger has been gradually closed again since 2019 supposedly for the Stars and Stripes to never fall. Thus it seems to have had a slight impact on the chip industry chain as well.

The infrastructure plan is laced with indicators of a new age of Cold War competition, more technological than military. There are billions for industrial policy — a word the Biden White House avoids — like the movement of advanced semiconductor manufacturing back to the United States, diminishing reliance on Chinese suppliers.

深度分析卡老師登場的資本論

其一

逆全球化的新冷戰(zhàn)競爭和市場參入高壁壘導(dǎo)致行業(yè)的壟斷獨(dú)占使得芯片行業(yè)出現(xiàn)短缺時(shí)無法替代甚至很容易被當(dāng)作貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)爭的武器大棒揮過來不可抵擋

The first rule of Fight Club --- The new Cold War competition of counter-globalization and high barriers to market entry leads to monopolies and monopolies in the industry, making the chip industry irreplaceable when there is a shortage, and even easily used as a weapon of the trade war, a big stick that can be completely irresistible.

其二

新數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)代的無形資產(chǎn)無限價(jià)值化導(dǎo)致GAFAM各家獨(dú)大巨擘撐天

而在背后技術(shù)支持?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)時(shí)代催生GAFAM各種變革的包括芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)在內(nèi)的實(shí)體制造業(yè)得不到充分的重視和投資者的青睞

近期出現(xiàn)對芯片行業(yè)投資只是短期的政治而不是市場主導(dǎo)的投資并不能解決行業(yè)根本問題

The infinite value of intangible assets in the new technical information era has led to the dominance of? GAFAM giants.

But the real manufacturing industry, including the chip field, which supports the technical information innovations in GAFAM, has not been given sufficient attention and favored by investors.

Recent investments in the chip industry are only short-term political rather than market-driven investments and cannot solve the fundamental problems of the industry

其三

無法停止，不可避免，欲望催生欲望，欲望的資本主義。新冠病毒進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大了貧困的差距，加速了社會的龜裂。

Unstoppable, inevitable, desire begets desire, desire capitalism. The new coronavirus pandemic further widens the gap of poverty and accelerates the cracking of society.

所謂“經(jīng)濟(jì)”一詞的出處是“經(jīng)世濟(jì)民”（整治天下，拯救民眾）——是日本思想家福澤諭吉對英文economy一詞的翻譯。后來逆向引進(jìn)中國。出典來自《抱樸子·審舉》謂：“故披洪范而知箕子有經(jīng)世之器，覽九術(shù)而見范生懷治國之略?！薄稌x書·殷浩傳簡文（司馬昱）答書》：“足下沈識淹長，思綜通練，起而明之，足以經(jīng)濟(jì)。” “經(jīng)世濟(jì)民”，是以探求經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行規(guī)律為己任的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人不懈追求的目標(biāo)，它將個人的知識、能力奉獻(xiàn)社會，將個人的成才抱負(fù)融入為最廣大人民造福之中，這是社會進(jìn)步需要的個體素質(zhì)的完善與人格信念的升華。云云云云。

The origin of the word "economy" is "Jing Shi Ji Min" - a translation of the English word economy by the Japanese thinker Fukuzawa Yukichi. It was later introduced to China in reverse. you can you translate, blablablabla. Cloudy cloudy cloudy cloudy.