week 3
912-916
聽9.12
Science and technology Weather forecasting Continental divide
科學(xué)技術(shù) 天氣預(yù)報差距
Europeans do not just talk about the weather more than Americans do.They are better at forecasting it as well.
歐洲人不僅比美國人更喜歡談?wù)撎鞖?，而且也更擅長預(yù)測天氣。
IT WAS far too small a victory to count as an equaliser.
美國目前的全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)與歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心的天氣預(yù)報能力可謂平分秋色。
But cheers were still heard in American meteorological circles after the storm that hit the country's east coast last month left the city of New York mostly unscathed.
上月，一場暴風(fēng)雪襲擊了美國東海岸，紐約所受影響較小。對于這次暴風(fēng)雪的預(yù)測，全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)的準確度小占上風(fēng)。
For more than two decades the Global Forecast System (GFS), the leading weather-prediction model produced in the United States, has been notably less accurate than its chief competitor, published by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
較之二者，全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)所得成功雖微不足道，但美國氣象界仍對此大呼叫好。全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)是美國最為先進的天氣預(yù)報模型，二十多年來，它發(fā)布的天氣預(yù)測準確性顯然落后于它的勁敵--歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心。
Although this deficit went largely unnoticed for years, it was laid bare by Hurricane Sandy.
多年以來，公眾對此差距幾乎全然不知，但是颶風(fēng)桑迪的襲擊讓人們注意到了二者的差距。
A week before that storm's landfall in 2012, the ECMWF predicted it would veer towards the coast while the GFS showed it remaining at sea.
三年前，在颶風(fēng)桑迪登陸的一周前，歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心預(yù)測颶風(fēng)會徑直朝沿海運動，但全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)卻預(yù)測它會停留在海面。
聽9.13
In response to this failure, America's Congress authorised 34m of extra money to spend on forecasting.
在這場對颶風(fēng)桑迪的預(yù)測較量中全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)失敗了，為此美國國會批準了一筆數(shù)額高達340萬美元的投資，用于升級全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)。
A new version of the GFS went into operation on January 14th, and two weeks later it passed with flying colours.
1月14日，升級后的全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)投入運行，僅兩個星期后它就斬獲成功。
On January 25th the ECMWF predicted that New York would, on the 27th, labour under 64cm (25 inches) of snow brought by the storm pictured above.
1月25日，歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心預(yù)測紐約將在27日遭到暴雪襲擊，城市積雪可達64英寸之厚。
The GFS suggested 18cm. That turned out to be far closer to the truth.It is, however, too early for the Americans to celebrate.
但全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)卻預(yù)報積雪厚度為18厘米，最后事實證明后者預(yù)測更為準確。全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)升級之后牛刀小試便獲成功，但美國人可別高興得太早。
The GFS projection for the blizzard's western edge differed from the ECMWF's by 200km (120 miles)—a weather-forecasting hairs'-breadth.
全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)對此次暴風(fēng)雪的西部鋒面長度與歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心所得預(yù)測相差200公里，這個差值在本次預(yù)報中至關(guān)重要。
The only reason anyone noticed this discrepancy was that the gap happened to encompass the country's most populous city.
因為相差200公里的鋒面卻正好縈繞在了紐約這座美國最為繁華的都市上空，這引起了人們的注意。
This episode, moreover, may have been a fluke.
全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)這次預(yù)報相對準確或為僥幸成功。
聽9.14
During?its?three?weeks?of?operation,?the?new?GFS remained?outclassed.?On?a
standard?measure—predicting?the?altitude?at?which?the?atmospheric pressure?is
half?as?great?as?at?sea?level—it?still?trails the?ECMWF?model.
全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)投入運行的三周時間里，其預(yù)報質(zhì)量遠優(yōu)于歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心。但在一項對某緯度大氣壓強是海平面一半的標準測試中，全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)仍落后于歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心.
Nonetheless,?the?GFS's?strong?showing?during?January's?nor'easter?offers?solace?tocritics?whofeared?America?would?never?catch?up?with?Europe?in?matters
Meteorological. Weather forecasting?is?fiendishly?complex,?and?improvements
tend?o?arise?not?from?great leaps?forward but?rather?an?accumulation?of
incremental?advances.
之前批評家們擔心美國在氣象預(yù)報方面永遠也趕不上歐洲，但是全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)在1月份對暴風(fēng)雪東北鋒面的準確預(yù)測給予了他們一些安慰。預(yù)報天氣是件極其復(fù)雜的事情，要想提高預(yù)測的準確性可不能一蹴而就而要靠慢慢積累。
The?ECMWF's?most?obvious?advantage?has?been?in?raw?computing?power.?Its?Cray?XC30 supercomputer?can?perform?up?to?2?quadrillion?calculations?a?second,?about
ten?times?morethan?the?GFS?hardware?before?the?recent?upgrade.
歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心的強勢之處在于它那了得的運算能力。該氣象中心擁有一臺Cray?XC30型超級電腦，一秒內(nèi)就能運算2萬億次，其運算能力是全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)硬件升級前的十倍多。
聽9.15
The?ECMWF?also?deserves?credit?for?deploying?its?computational?force?wisely.?The?centre?was?apioneer?in?using?satellites?to?fill?gaps?in?the?data?over?the?oceans,?and?in?developing?“ensembleforecasts”?that?generate?a?range?of?outcomes?by
employing?slightly?different?starting conditions?to?produce?multiple?predictions.
Its?current?model?runs?52?such?forecasts?inparallel,?each?with?a?probability
assigned?to?it.
歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心對其強大的運算能力使用分布得當亦值稱贊。該中心在運用衛(wèi)星進行氣象觀測，彌補海洋氣象數(shù)據(jù)不足方面處于領(lǐng)先地位；此外，它還開發(fā)出一套名為“系集預(yù)報”的模型，即通過利用氣象起始狀況的細微不同來得出多項預(yù)測從而得到多個預(yù)報結(jié)果。歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心現(xiàn)有的這個模型能同時進行52項這樣的氣象預(yù)測，每個預(yù)測都會得出一個預(yù)報結(jié)果。
Weather?forecasters?in?America?have?full?access?to?the?ECMWF's?model.?However,
the?United States?still?has?good?reason?not?to?free-ride?on?the?Europeans'?work.
Private?American?firms have?to?pay?for?it,?and?the?ECMWF?is?unlikely?to?develop
regional?or?local?models?focused specifically?on?America.?Moreover,?giving?the
ECMWF?a?worthy?competitor?would?probably?lead to?better?forecasts?overall.
美國的氣象預(yù)報人員具有使用歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心該模型的全部權(quán)限。但是美國還是找出了不搭便車的理由。一來美國私人公司要付費使用該模型，二來是歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心也不可能針對美國開發(fā)出一套區(qū)域性更強的模型，三來歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心是個勁敵，與之競爭或許能全面促進美國天氣預(yù)報的發(fā)展。
聽9.16
The?new?GFS?has?certainly?narrowed?the?gap.?Its?resolution?is?now?13km,?though?itstill?has only?64?layers.?By?November?it?is?expected?to?run?on?a?faster?computer
than?the?ECMWF's.?It could?be?in?line?for?further?upgrades?if?the?new,?Republican
Congress?reintroduces?the?WeatherForecasting?Improvement?Act?proposed?last
Year-though?the?party's?global-warming?scepticsare?likely?to?demand?that?much?ofthe?additional?$120m?a?year?the?bill?offered?be?taken?away from?research?on
climate?change.
全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)升級后著實縮小了與歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心的差距。雖然該系統(tǒng)大氣分層能力還只能分出64層，但現(xiàn)如今它的氣象分辨率已經(jīng)能達到13千米。今年11月，全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)有望將換裝比歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心運行速度更快的超級電腦。如今美國國會已是共和黨人的主場了，如果他們能重新采納去年遞交的“氣象預(yù)報完善法案”，那全球預(yù)報系統(tǒng)有望得到進一步升級。該法案要求每年給氣候研究增加1200萬美元的經(jīng)費，雖然共和黨內(nèi)的“全球變暖”懷疑者們可能會要求大幅裁減這筆資金。
According?to?Cliff?Mass,?a?professor?of?meteorology?at?the?University?of
Washington,?moremoney?will?not?be?enough?to?catch?up?with?the?Europeans.
America,?he?says,?must?integrate?its separate?research?and?forecasting?divisions,
and?include?more?contributions?from?non-government?experts.?Compared?with
pushing?through?cultural?change?in?large?publicbureaucracies,?predicting?the
weather?is?easy.
華盛頓大學(xué)氣象學(xué)教授Cliff?Mass稱，即使美國投入再多的錢其天氣預(yù)報的能力也無法趕上歐洲人。他說美國要想在這方面獲得實質(zhì)性的提高不僅得把其氣候?qū)ｍ椦芯亢透黝A(yù)報部門綜合起來，還得廣納民間氣候?qū)＜业慕ㄗh。較之在官場推行政治文化氣息變革，預(yù)測天氣真算得上是簡單的了。
